The project required 977 million euros in aid of Frob, so it is actually spoken by the Bank of Spain, and has a requirement of additional capital of 847 million to reach 10% which demands. And on a possible IPO looms the shadow of the price they are willing to offer investors, who question the real value of the entity.
In parallel, this week is filled up the first step of integration into a bank of three cases of the Basque Autonomous Community: BBK (Vizcaya), Kutxa (Guipúzcoa) and Vital (Álava). The entity, which have yet to emerge almost all the details (name, location, distribution of power ...), seems to come however with a remarkable soundness, without adjusting the system or resorting to the aid of the State. And with the ability to take advantage of bargains to stop the crisis from other banks to grow through purchases. Have assets of around 80,000 million euros, a core capital exceeding 10% and industrial stakes among which 6% of Iberdrola, which owns BBK or 20% of CAF train manufacturer that has Kutxa. Among the three cases in 2010 totaled just over 365 million euros of profit.
At this point, Caja Navarra think that part of this project belong only to the realm of fiction. The tracks do not seem to have taken place ago. But what would a joint body which also included? Would it make sense technically and economically on the margins of political debate? Juan Carlos Longo, Department of Economics UPNA, has little doubt about it. "They tended to think that Caja Navarra was a good box, but the reality is that has joined with others who do not think what they are and we are seeing the consequences. What is happening now seems to me that borders on scandal. Is a mess ", sentence.
Juan Pablo Montes, director Income Navarra 4 shows also very critical of the path taken by Caja Navarra. " I is surprising, really. We see the suspense in the stress test, the office goes to Sevilla ... Yo, maybe he is a little classic, but do not quite see the advantages in these processes. I understand the normal mergers and takeovers, but this .. . "Says Montes, pessimistic about the future of the sector.
Navarra Basque Federation
Supporters of integration in the draft of the Basque savings banks insist that there was no need to invent anything. The existence of Navarra Basque Federation of Savings Banks, which dates back to the 20, could have served in the perfect setting to view a hypothetical junction boxes, according to all available data now be contained within the four largest market (about 100,000 million in assets), with a balance of higher quality and a more contained, arrears, below 3, 3%. The four companies are based in the two communities with higher income per capita and less unemployment, so the impact of the crisis is felt less in income statement. And until 2007, when he landed on the Caja Navarra CAV with 60 branches (one half of which had to close), there was little overlap of branches. Each of the four boxes have historically respected the other territories, which even earned them a fine of 24 million euros by the National Competition Commission.
" boxes also shared a financial culture and way of doing things " adds Longás, Nafarroa Bai candidate for the Parliament of Navarre, and understands that the decision not to seek a union with the three Basque savings banks is "politics." "It would have been the way - adds to maintain an institution model anchored in the territory. And what we have now Civic Banking is a weakened institution with headquarters in Seville."
Policy and the Bank of Spain José
Luis Alvarez, director of the Department of Economics at the University of Navarra, understands that "almost all mergers technically feasible" , but believes that we must take into consideration issues such as the presence or absence of each entity in other communities. "I think with Caja Canarias initially sought just that, non-overlapping offices." The teacher also shows that doubts about the path taken by the SIP is irreversible or there is some reverse. " From the outside it seems to me that there are boxes that are being added to projects not entirely convinced" says before pointing out that political considerations continue to play a key role in the restructuring of the sector. And also adds a new element to the debate: " The public's perception to a merger. How do people understand? Does the merger other connotations in addition to the financial" . Few doubt that in the event of a merger between Caja Navarra and Basque savings banks, with the latter as the third of a group of four, the discussion had gone beyond the economic and raised hackles, especially in the most Navarre. In fact, politics has conditioned all the processes of integration and as obvious as the merger of the three boxes Basque has taken six years to materialize and is not yet final. Include the part Navarre no doubt would have added complexity to the puzzle.
Would you have accepted the Bank of Spain a merger of this kind? Technically, the operation might seem impeccable, having no cost to public funds and simplify the map of entities, something that always sighed inspectors. But this option left to the regulator without some of their most valuable time to reorganize the system. "The Bank of Spain has sought to collect boxes and boxes good bad. And I, if the regulator surely do the same," says Longás. Thus, acquired BBK Cajasur Cajastur took Caja Castilla la Mancha, Unicaja has finally caught up to Spain, Duero and Navarra Fund itself, with just 18,000 million euros in assets, leads a group of more than 71,000 million and provides both the name and Banking business model Civic. The Seville Cajasol gives size and margins, but also a higher arrears to 6.5% of investors do not trust.
No size to send
were other possibilities, such as joining and powerful medium boxes, such as Caja Murcia and Cajastur Can complementary and similar size, but where the entity had been difficult to impose Navarre its business model. Geographical coverage would have been further enlargement is not the case in Basque, and the merger would also have allowed to grow through purchases in the second phase. Something similar would happen, for example, in an alliance with Ibercaja also solvent, but larger. None of this has happened and Civic Bank proceeds with a project that does not seem too much to start, which rejected the FROB. The entity headed by Enrique Goñi now hopes to convince markets that its business model represents the future banking and aims to capture 1,000 million. But apparently, investors hesitate. " In general, it is doubtful the real value of assets " explains Juan Pablo Montes, Renta 4. " are talking about savings of up to 70%, so if the final value boxes to the market price, this can be a catastrophe."
Juan Ángel Monreal, in Diario de Noticias
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